Win Probability

Thursday, 10 September 2026
7 rated matches · 6 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchGenaro Alberto Olivieri vs Tiago Pereira50% · 50%Toss-up · Seville · R16 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlexander Zverev vs Botic Van De Zandschulp94% · 6%Strong favourite · US Open · QF · Analyze match →
Rated that day7 matches76 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,499—67%
Challenger Men3,228—64%
Challenger Women844—65%
ITF Men4,432—67%
ITF Women4,128—66%
Yesterday · 9 Sep5 of 6 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 4.1 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days9 Sep 2026W15 Hurghada · R32Selina Atay beat Kamilla Bartone 6-3 3-0Pre-match: Selina Atay 9%Surprise score91

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.