UMPIRY
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Win Probability

Wednesday, 9 September 2026
7 rated matches · 4 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchKaren Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx51% · 49%Toss-up · US Open · QF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteCarlos Alcaraz vs Ben Shelton85% · 15%Strong favourite · US Open · QF · Analyze match →
Rated that day7 matches74 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 8 Sep7 of 11 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 6.8 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days8 Sep 2026W50 Evora · R32S. Johnson beat Oceane Dodin 4-6 6-2 6-2Pre-match: S. Johnson 9%Surprise score91

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.