UMPIRY
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Win Probability

Tuesday, 8 September 2026
11 rated matches · 7 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchThiago Monteiro vs Max Hans Rehberg50% · 50%Toss-up · Tulln · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlexander Zverev vs Luciano Darderi93% · 7%Strong favourite · US Open · R16 · Analyze match →
Rated that day11 matches117 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalTulln · R32 · ClayThiago Monteiro won 6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(5)Thiago Monteiro50%Max Hans Rehberg50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · QF · HardFrances Tiafoe won 5-7 3-6 7-5 6-3 7-6(6)Frances Tiafoe51%Alex Michelsen49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalCassis · R32 · HardDaniel Masur won 6-4 6-4Dan Added54%Daniel Masur46%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–3FinalMontreux Nestle Open - Montreux · R32 · ClayGuiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales won 6-2 6-1Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales55%Marina Bassols Ribera45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 4–2FinalShanghai · R32 · HardOmar Jasika won 6-2 6-1Omar Jasika44%Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalIstanbul · R32 · HardYanki Erel won 7-6(2) 6-4Timofey Skatov44%Yanki Erel56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalMontreux Nestle Open - Montreux · R32 · ClaySimona Waltert won 7-6(4) 3-6 6-2Simona Waltert43%Rebeka Masarova57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalCassis · R32 · HardUgo Blanchet won 6-3 6-3Ugo Blanchet58%Laurent Lokoli42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · R16 · HardCoco Gauff won 6-1 6-4Iva Jovic28%Coco Gauff72%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · QF · HardAryna Sabalenka won 7-6(1) 3-6 7-6(7)Aryna Sabalenka79%Linda Noskova21%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalUS Open · R16 · HardAlexander Zverev won 6-2 6-2 7-6(3)Alexander Zverev93%Luciano Darderi7%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–2
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 7 Sep4 of 10 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 6.4 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days7 Sep 2026M25 Gijon · Q16A. Meneses Perny beat A. Tripathi 6-3 6-4Pre-match: A. Meneses Perny 18%Surprise score82

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.