Ugo Blanchet vs Daniel Rincon — Cassis Round of 16

Cassis · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
FRA8
Ugo Blanchet
#199ATP
1521ELO
1546Hard ELO
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWLLLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 9 September 2026 ·
hard
Central · 1st on
ESP
Daniel Rincon
#208ATP
1522ELO
1514Hard ELO
23 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWLLLW
Blanchet U.
6-3 3-6 6-3
Rincon D.
Blanchet U.
6362
Rincon D.
3631

Ugo Blanchet defeated Daniel Rincon in the Round of 16 at the Cassis hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 in favor of Blanchet. Both players recorded identical statistics in aces, double faults, and service breaks, but Blanchet had a slightly higher break point conversion percentage.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

  • Match story: Ugo Blanchet closed it out in three sets, 6–3 3–6 6–3.

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-30WimbledonQ1grassUgo Blanchet7-5 7-6
2025-06-23WimbledonQ128grassUgo Blanchet7-5 7-6(5)

Statistics

This season
Blanchet U.Rincon D.
1st serve in·Slight edge
53%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
66%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.6
2.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Blanchet U.Rincon D.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
34
41
Break points saved·Dominant
89
50
Break points won·Clear edge
15
34
Deciding sets·Dominant
12
93
Tiebreaks·Dominant
93
16

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Blanchet U.55%
Rincon D.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Blanchet U.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Rincon D.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.4+32 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Hard Elo 1514
5.0Overall Elo 1521
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1522
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
5.76 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Blanchet U.Rincon D.
Freshness·Clear edge
88
75

Blanchet U.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Rincon D.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 54%

Draw