Ilya Ivashka vs Marat Sharipov | Shanghai Final

Shanghai · CHALLENGER · Final

BLR

Ilya Ivashka

#393ATP

1538ELO

1509Hard ELO

$35kYTD

$3.4MCAREER

32 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWLWWLWW

—

Sets

Sunday, 13 September 2026 · 16:00

hard

CENTER COURT · 1st on

RUS

Marat Sharipov

#442ATP

1425ELO

1416Hard ELO

$24kYTD

$160kCAREER

23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWLWWWLL

Ivashka I.

Sharipov M.

Ilya Ivashka faces Marat Sharipov in the Shanghai final on hard. Ilya Ivashka holds the paper edge — ranked #393, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC

Ivashka I.51%

Sharipov M.49%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Ilya Ivashka comes in with 1 days of rest and 145 games in 14d, vs Marat Sharipov's 1 and 78.
Win streak: Both arrive on four-match winning runs.
Surface form: Both 4 of 4 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Ivashka I.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Sharipov M.

5.2

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

6.2+93 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.8Hard Elo 1416

6.4Overall Elo 1538

ELO gap

3.6Overall Elo 1425

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

8.38 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

8.48 of last 10 on hard

7.04-match win streak

Win streak

7.04-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

15 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season

Ivashka I.Sharipov M.

1st serve in·Even

62%

60%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

68%

78%

2nd serve points won·Even

50%

51%

Service points won·Slight edge

61%

67%

Return points won·Even

41%

39%

Break points saved·Slight edge

57%

65%

Aces / match·Dominant

3.6

9.8

Double faults / match·Even

2.7

2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Ivashka I.serving77% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Sharipov M.

Sharipov M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Ivashka I.

Serve advantage — Sharipov M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Ivashka I.Sharipov M.

Freshness·Slight edge

Ivashka I.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d) · Sharipov M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

30°CClear

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 47%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Ilya Ivashka vs Marat Sharipov — Shanghai Final