Upset Audit
WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026: the biggest upsets
The most surprising results of WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 in London, United Kingdom, ranked by the Umpiry Surprise Score— 100 minus the winner's frozen pre-match win probability. The higher the score, the bigger the shock. Tap any result for the full match.
1
Snigur D.def.Svitolina E.
Snigur D.def.Svitolina E.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1285-7 2-6
Pre-match WP: Snigur D. 12% · Svitolina E. 88%
88
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
2
Osaka N.def.
Sabalenka A.
Osaka N.def.Sabalenka A.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 162-6 6-7
Pre-match WP: Osaka N. 14% · Sabalenka A. 86%
86
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
3
Bolkvadze M.def.
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.def.Tomljanovic A.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1282-6 6-2 4-6
Pre-match WP: Bolkvadze M. 15% · Tomljanovic A. 85%
85
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
4
Grant T.def.
Boulter K.
Grant T.def.Boulter K.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1284-6 2-6
Pre-match WP: Grant T. 16% · Boulter K. 84%
84
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
5
Liu C.def.
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.def.Sonmez Z.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 645-7 3-6
Pre-match WP: Liu C. 16% · Sonmez Z. 84%
84
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
6
Mertens E.def.
Rybakina E.
Mertens E.def.Rybakina E.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 327-6 6-1
Pre-match WP: Mertens E. 17% · Rybakina E. 83%
83
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
7
Tjen J.def.
Fernandez L.
Tjen J.def.Fernandez L.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1281-6 6-7
Pre-match WP: Tjen J. 18% · Fernandez L. 82%
82
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
8
Bouzas Maneiro J.def.
Potapova A.
Bouzas Maneiro J.def.Potapova A.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1286-2 6-3
Pre-match WP: Bouzas Maneiro J. 19% · Potapova A. 81%
81
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
9
Eala A.def.
Swiatek I.
Eala A.def.Swiatek I.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 327-6 6-2
Pre-match WP: Eala A. 20% · Swiatek I. 80%
80
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
10
Krejcikova B.def.Andreeva M.
Krejcikova B.def.Andreeva M.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 644-6 7-5 6-4
Pre-match WP: Krejcikova B. 20% · Andreeva M. 80%
80
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
11Swan K.def.
Begu I.
Swan K.def.Begu I.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1284-6 4-6
Pre-match WP: Swan K. 23% · Begu I. 77%
77
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
12
Wang X.def.Cocciaretto E.
Wang X.def.Cocciaretto E.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1286-3 2-6 6-2
Pre-match WP: Wang X. 24% · Cocciaretto E. 76%
76
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
13
Rakhimova K.def.Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.def.Kalinina A.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1286-4 4-6 5-7
Pre-match WP: Rakhimova K. 25% · Kalinina A. 75%
75
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
14Samsonova L.def.Shnaider D.
Samsonova L.def.Shnaider D.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 644-6 6-4 2-6
Pre-match WP: Samsonova L. 26% · Shnaider D. 74%
74
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
15Liu C.def.Vandewinkel H.
Liu C.def.Vandewinkel H.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Round of 1284-6 6-3 6-4
Pre-match WP: Liu C. 29% · Vandewinkel H. 71%
71
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
16Gauff C.def.Pegula J.
Gauff C.def.Pegula J.WTA Tour Wimbledon 2026 — Quarterfinal6-4 3-6 3-6
Pre-match WP: Gauff C. 30% · Pegula J. 70%
70
Umpiry
Surprise Score
Surprise Score
The Umpiry Surprise Score uses a calibrated win probability frozen at match start, never recomputed in hindsight. Only genuine shocks are listed — main-draw results where the winner was a clear underdog (Surprise Score 70+, i.e. a pre-match win probability of 30% or below). It is statistical information, not a betting recommendation.