Taylor Fritz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante | Stockholm Final

UMPIRY

StockholmFinalHardSat 14 Nov · 13:00

Taylor Fritz(1)ATP #10 · USA76%

VSClear favourite · Fritz T.

Thiago Agustin TiranteATP #51 · ARG24%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Fritz T.

76%24%

Clear edge for Fritz T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Fritz T.6.2/10

Even match

Tirante T.4.7/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+202 Hard Elo edgeSupports Fritz T.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1909Supports Fritz T.

Recent run3-match win streakInformative

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Tirante T.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Tirante T.

ELO2 159

Hard ELO1 994

Last 108–2

Age29

Height196 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $32.6M2026 $3.3M

ELO1 941

Hard ELO1 746

Last 105–5

Age25

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $2.5M2026 $1.2M

Taylor Fritz faces Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Stockholm final on hard. Taylor Fritz is the paper favourite — ranked #10, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage — but Thiago Agustin Tirante has won their only previous meeting.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Taylor Fritz 172 games in 14 days, Thiago Agustin Tirante 138.
Serve & return: Taylor Fritz leads on Serve Rating (85), Thiago Agustin Tirante on Return Rating (25).
Last match: Taylor Fritz dropped just 6 games past Lorenzo Musetti.

Common opponents

9 shared · last 12 months

Fritz T. and Tirante T. faced 9 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Fritz T. went 10–2 (83%) against them, Tirante T. 5–7 (42%). Fritz T. came out clearly better against 5 of 8 comparable opponents, Tirante T. against 2 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (retirement).

10–283%Fritz T. · better vs 5Record vs common opponents5–742%Tirante T. · better vs 2

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

24–8Sets12–16

180–135Games137–151

5–0Tiebreaks4–2

2–2Deciding sets1–2

vs Fils A.#7W6-2 2-0Basel · hardL3-6 2-6Cincinnati · hard
vs Jodar R.#11W7-6(2) 6-4Washington · hardL6-4 2-6 3-6Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Cerundolo F.#20L6-3 6-4 3-6 4-6 4-6US Open · hardL4-6 2-6Miami Masters · hard

Show 6 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Bellucci M.#62W6-0 6-1 6-1US Open · hardL4-6 4-6Rolex Paris Masters - Paris · hard
vs Marozsan F.#63W6-2 6-4Halle · grassL5-7 3-6 4-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Munar J.#70L7-6(7) 4-6 3-6Tokyo · hardW7-6(3) 6-3Stockholm · hard
vs Landaluce M.#71W7-5Stuttgart · grassW7-6(5) 7-6(4)Cincinnati · hard
vs Royer V.#119W7-6 5-7 6-1 6-3Australian Open · hardW7-5 6-7 7-6Miami Masters · hard
vs Norrie C.#53Hard to compareW7-5 6-3Stockholm · hardW6-3 7-5Rome Masters · clay

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Tirante T. leads 1–0

Tirante T.August 2026MontrealHard7-5 6-3

Evidence

Fritz T.Tirante T.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–25–5

Season win rate68% (46–22)58% (36–26)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO21591941

Hard-court ELO19941746

Serve vs returnLast 66 vs 53 matches

1st-serve points won80%76%

Return points won35%35%

Aces / match14.29.4

ClutchLast 66 vs 53 matches

Break points saved69%62%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:00 local

SurfaceHard · medium

Forecast3°C · Clear

Wind17 km/h

Humidity67%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Fritz T.Tirante T.

2Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days2

55Games · 7 days57

7Matches · 14 days5

172Games · 14 days138

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Taylor Fritz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Stockholm Final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-14/fritz-vs-tirante-stockholm-f?utm_source=cite (as of 14 November 2026).