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Talia Gibson vs Oleksandra Oliynykova — Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong Round of 32

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong KongR32HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Gibson T.
71%29%

Clear edge for Gibson T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Gibson T.6.3/10
Marginal edge
Oliynykova O.5.2/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+192 Hard Elo edgeSupports Gibson T.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1773Against the prediction · Oliynykova O.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Oliynykova O.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 839
Hard ELO1 765
Last 105–5
Age22
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.1M2026 $1.2M
ELO1 774
Hard ELO1 522
Last 103–7
Age25
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.1M2026 $914K

Talia Gibson faces Oleksandra Oliynykova in the Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong round of 32 on hard. Talia Gibson holds the paper edge — ranked #38, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

12 shared · last 12 months

Gibson T. and Oliynykova O. faced 12 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Gibson T. went 3–10 (23%) against them, Oliynykova O. 6–7 (46%). Oliynykova O. came out better against 4 of 12 comparable opponents, Gibson T. against 1 — though 2 of those edges carry caveats (lower-tier event).

3–1023%Gibson T. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents6–746%Oliynykova O. · better vs 4
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
13–22Sets12–15
144–186Games110–128
2–0Tiebreaks0–1
2–7Deciding sets2–0
Show 9 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Gibson T.Oliynykova O.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–5 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate55% (37–30) (ahead)52% (27–25)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1839 (ahead)1774
Hard-court ELO1765 (ahead)1522
Serve vs returnLast 64 vs 49 matches
1st-serve points won68% (ahead)56%
Return points won43%47% (ahead)
Aces / match5.4 (ahead)0.8
ClutchLast 64 vs 49 matches
Break points saved55% (ahead)52%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast28°C · Drizzle
Wind10 km/h
Humidity67%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Gibson T.Oliynykova O.
4Days since last match8 — fresher
2Matches · 7 days0 — fresher
42Games · 7 days0 — fresher
5Matches · 14 days2 — fresher
98Games · 14 days33 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Talia Gibson vs Oleksandra Oliynykova — Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/gibson-vs-oliynykova-hong-kong-tennis-open-hong-kong-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).