Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Alexandra Eala — US Open Round of 64

US Open · WTA · Round of 64
Oleksandra Oliynykova
UKR
Oleksandra Oliynykova
#46WTA
1773ELO
1572Hard ELO
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWLLWWL
—
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 ·
hard
Alexandra Eala
PHI17
Alexandra Eala
#18WTA
1895ELO
1833Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
21 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWLWWWWWW
Oliynykova O.
vs
Eala A.

Oleksandra Oliynykova faces Alexandra Eala in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Alexandra Eala is the paper favourite — ranked #18, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 260-point hard Elo advantage — but Oleksandra Oliynykova has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Oliynykova O.17%
Eala A.83%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Eala A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
3 common opponents · Oliynykova O. 2–1 · Eala A. 2–1 · small sample
Oliynykova O. better · same surface, 27 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Oliynykova O.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Eala A.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
1.7Hard Elo 1572
Surface ELO
8.3+260 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1773
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1895
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.06 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.58 of last 10 on hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

36 vs 42 matches

Statistics

This season
Oliynykova O.Eala A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
74%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
58%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
48%
Service points won·Even
54%
57%
Return points won·Even
48%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
51%
56%
Aces / match·Even
0.7
1.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.8
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Oliynykova O.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Eala A.

Eala A.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Oliynykova O.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Oliynykova O.Eala A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
78
41
Break points saved·Dominant
75
12
Break points won·Clear edge
99
83
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
65
Tiebreaks·
—
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Oliynykova O.Eala A.
Freshness·Slight edge
79
88

Oliynykova O.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Eala A.: played today · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 80%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-18StrasbourgR32clayOleksandra Oliynykova6-3 5-7 3-6

Draw