Cameron Norrie vs Matteo Arnaldi | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisR64HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00

Cameron NorrieATP #41 · GBR57%

VSToss-up

Matteo ArnaldiATP #36 · ITA43%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

57%43%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Norrie C.5.7/10

Slight disadvantage

Arnaldi M.5.4/10

Clear underdog

Why

Surface+57 Hard Elo edgeSupports Norrie C.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1829Informative

Recent runLost last 3Informative

Head-to-headTrails 0–1 on hardInformative

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Arnaldi M.

ELO1 957

Hard ELO1 836

Last 103–7

Age31

Height188 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $15.1M2026 $1.3M

ELO1 900

Hard ELO1 716

Last 103–7

Age25

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $6.3M2026 $1.7M

Cameron Norrie faces Matteo Arnaldi in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris round of 64 on hard. Matteo Arnaldi holds the paper edge — ranked #36, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Cameron Norrie comes in with 3 days of rest and 76 games in 14d, vs Matteo Arnaldi's 6 and 37.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Cameron Norrie has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 87 vs 53).
Head-to-head: Matteo Arnaldi leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at US Open 2023.

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Norrie C. and Arnaldi M. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Norrie C. went 5–2 (71%) against them, Arnaldi M. 2–3 (40%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 1 better-results split).

5–271%Norrie C. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents2–340%Arnaldi M. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

11–5Sets5–8

87–63Games55–69

1–1Tiebreaks1–2

1–1Deciding sets1–0

vs Alcaraz C.#3L3-6 4-6Indian Wells Masters · hardL6-7(6) 1-6Tokyo · hard
vs De Minaur A.#10L6-7 6-2 2-6Monte Carlo Masters · clayW4-6 7-6 6-4Rome Masters · clay
vs Duckworth J.#68W6-4 6-4Los Cabos · hardL7-5 3-6 2-6 6-7(8)US Open · hard

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vs Tomic B.#179W6-1 6-0Los Cabos · hardW6-3 6-1Shanghai Masters · hard
vs McDonald M.#238W6-2 6-3Indian Wells Masters · hardL0-6 1-6Indian Wells Masters · hard

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Arnaldi M. leads 1–0

Arnaldi M.August 2023US OpenHard6-3 6-4 6-3

Evidence

Norrie C.Arnaldi M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss3–73–7

Season win rate47% (24–27)48% (19–21)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19571900

Hard-court ELO18361716

Serve vs returnLast 42 vs 35 matches

1st-serve points won69%70%

Return points won36%38%

Aces / match4.75.1

ClutchLast 42 vs 35 matches

Break points saved64%59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast9°C · Partly cloudy

Wind8 km/h

Humidity80%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Norrie C.Arnaldi M.

3Days since last match6

2Matches · 7 days1

49Games · 7 days20

3Matches · 14 days2

76Games · 14 days37

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Cameron Norrie vs Matteo Arnaldi — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/arnaldi-vs-norrie-rolex-paris-masters-paris-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).