Leylah Fernandez vs Elise Mertens — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Round of 16
Why
Surface+63 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Mertens E.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1894Against the prediction · Mertens E.
Head-to-headSplit 2–2 on hardSupports Fernandez L.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Mertens E.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 950
Hard ELO1 856
Last 107–3
Age24
Height168 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $9.2M2026 $1.8M
ELO2 015
Hard ELO1 851
Last 106–4
Age30
Height179 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $21.2M2026 $3.4M
Leylah Fernandez faces Elise Mertens in the Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo round of 16 on hard. Elise Mertens holds the paper edge — ranked #14, a roughly 60-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched. They have met 4 times, the series level at 2–2.
Key context
- Freshness: Leylah Fernandez comes in with 2 days of rest and 168 games in 14d, vs Elise Mertens's 1 and 69.
- Last match: Leylah Fernandez dropped just 6 games past Himeno Sakatsume.
- Last match: Elise Mertens dropped just 6 games past Moyuka Uchijima.
Common opponents
10 shared · last 12 monthsFernandez L. and Mertens E. faced 10 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Fernandez L. went 6–8 (43%) against them, Mertens E. 9–7 (56%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 5 better-results split).
6–843%Fernandez L. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents9–756%Mertens E. · better vs 5
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
14–18Sets18–18
151–158Games157–163
1–3Tiebreaks2–0
2–2Deciding sets3–1
vs Rybakina E.#1L7-6 4-6 6-7Stuttgart · clayW7-6 6-1Wimbledon · grass
vs Andreeva M.#3L6-7 3-6Madrid · clayL3-6 3-6Rome · clay
vs Chwalinska M.#11W1-6 6-4 6-2Singapore · hardL2-6 2-6Singapore · hard
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vs Mboko V.#15L4-6 4-6Strasbourg · clayW6-3 3-6 6-3United Cup · hard
vs Osaka N.#18L4-6 4-6Toronto · hardL1-6 2-6Toronto · hard
vs Eala A.#19W6-1 6-4Stuttgart · clayW6-2 6-1Madrid · clay
vs Bouzkova M.#24W6-3 7-5Ningbo Open - Ningbo · hardW6-4 6-4Wimbledon · grass
vs Ostapenko J.#26L1-6 6-1 4-6Wuhan · hardW6-2 3-6 6-3Beijing · hard- vs Samsonova L.#43W5-7 7-5 6-3Dubai · hardW1-6 6-3 6-0Berlin · grass
vs Kessler M.#110L3-6 2-6Abu Dhabi · hardW7-6 2-6 3-3BJK Cup Qualifiers · hard
Head-to-head
4 meetings · level 2–222
- Fernandez L.October 2026Ningbo Open - NingboHard6-2 3-6 5-7
- Mertens E.February 2025DubaiHard6-2 6-2
- Fernandez L.September 2023GuadalajaraHard6-3 6-4
- Mertens E.February 2021Australian OpenHard6-1 6-3
Evidence
Fernandez L.Mertens E.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate51% (29–28)62% (36–22) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19502015 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO1856 (ahead)1851
Serve vs returnLast 55 vs 56 matches
1st-serve points won65%70% (ahead)
Return points won42%44% (ahead)
Aces / match2.64.3 (ahead)
ClutchLast 55 vs 56 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)56%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Leylah Fernandez vs Elise Mertens — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/fernandez-vs-mertens-toray-pan-pacific-open-tokyo-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).