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Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar — Basel Round of 64

BaselR64HardMon 26 Oct · 11:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Jodar R.
27%73%

Clear edge for Jodar R. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Tabilo A.5.4/10
Clear underdog
Jodar R.7.3/10
Strong advantage
Why
Surface+123 Hard Elo edgeSupports Jodar R.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1999Supports Jodar R.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headLeads 2–1 on hardSupports Jodar R.
Travel7h west, 8d agoInformative
ELO1 952
Hard ELO1 802
Last 104–6
Age29
Height188 cm
EarningsCareer $6.2M2026 $1.5M
ELO2 092
Hard ELO1 874
Last 107–3
Age20
Height191 cm
EarningsCareer $2.8M2026 $2.5M

Alejandro Tabilo faces Rafael Jodar in the Basel round of 64 on hard. Rafael Jodar holds the paper edge — ranked #11, leading the head-to-head 2–1, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

9 shared · last 12 months
All 9 opponents →

Tabilo A. and Jodar R. faced 9 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Tabilo A. went 2–8 (20%) against them, Jodar R. 9–2 (82%). Jodar R. came out clearly better against 5 of 8 comparable opponents, Tabilo A. against 0.

2–820%Tabilo A. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents9–282%Jodar R. · better vs 5
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
11–19Sets20–13
150–157Games168–143
1–7Tiebreaks1–0
1–6Deciding sets6–0
Show 6 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

3 meetings · Jodar R. leads 2–1
Full H2H →
12

Evidence

Tabilo A.Jodar R.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–67–3 (ahead)
Season win rate58% (38–28)76% (56–18) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19522092 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO18021874 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 59 vs 69 matches
1st-serve points won74% (ahead)70%
Return points won37%41% (ahead)
Aces / match6.1 (ahead)4.3
ClutchLast 59 vs 69 matches
Break points saved62%63% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast11°C · Overcast
Wind4 km/h
Humidity69%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Tabilo A.Jodar R.
15 — fresherDays since last match7
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days1
0 — fresherGames · 7 days30
0 — fresherMatches · 14 days5
0 — fresherGames · 14 days142
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar — Basel Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/jodar-vs-tabilo-basel-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).