Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Quarter-final
Why
Surface+15 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Alexandrova E.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1844Against the prediction · Alexandrova E.
Head-to-headTrails 2–3 on hardSupports Fernandez L.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Alexandrova E.
Recent run2-match win streakBoth players
ELO1 930
Hard ELO1 838
Last 108–2
Age24
Height168 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $9.0M2026 $1.6M
ELO1 976
Hard ELO1 847
Last 107–3
Age31
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $11.5M2026 $1.8M
Leylah Fernandez faces Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Ningbo Open - Ningbo quarter-final on hard. Ekaterina Alexandrova holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 3–2, a roughly 20-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Leylah Fernandez 134 games in 14 days, Ekaterina Alexandrova 81.
- Under pressure: Leylah Fernandez has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 82 vs Ekaterina Alexandrova's 62).
- Last match: Ekaterina Alexandrova advanced when Marta Kostyuk retired.
Common opponents
14 shared · last 12 monthsFernandez L. and Alexandrova E. faced 14 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Fernandez L. went 9–11 (45%) against them, Alexandrova E. 8–9 (47%). Results against comparable opponents are close (5 : 3 better-results split).
9–1145%Fernandez L. · better vs 5Record vs common opponents8–947%Alexandrova E. · better vs 3
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
20–24Sets20–21
210–209Games198–185
2–5Tiebreaks0–3
3–2Deciding sets3–4
vs Rybakina E.#1L7-6 4-6 6-7Stuttgart · clayL4-6 4-6WTA Finals · hard
vs Andreeva M.#3W6-2 7-5Singapore · hardL6-7(4) 6-7(3)Beijing · hard
vs Jovic I.#12W3-6 6-3 6-2Madrid · clayL3-6 6-3 4-6Wimbledon · grass
Show 11 more ▾Show less ▴
vs Osaka N.#19L4-6 4-6Toronto · hardL2-6 2-6Bad Homburg · grass
vs Eala A.#20W6-1 6-4Stuttgart · clayW6-3 6-3Abu Dhabi · hard
vs Ostapenko J.#24L1-6 6-1 4-6Wuhan · hardL4-6 2-6Doha · hard- vs Li A.#25W6-3 6-2Madrid · clayL6-4 4-6 3-6Strasbourg · clay
vs Gibson T.#42W7-5 6-0Singapore · hardW5-7 6-1 6-3Toronto · hard
vs Sonmez Z.#63W6-7 6-1 7-6Stuttgart · clayL5-7 6-4 4-6Australian Open · hard
vs Linette M.#77W6-1 6-4Washington · hardL2-6 6-4 1-6Dubai · hard
vs Yastremska D.#103L1-6 2-6Brisbane · hardW6-3 6-0Abu Dhabi · hard- vs Kessler M.#106L3-6 2-6Abu Dhabi · hardW6-2 6-2US Open · hard
vs Sasnovich A.#122W7-5 6-7(3) 6-3Ningbo Open - Ningbo · hardW6-1 6-4Beijing · hard- vs Shnaider D.#13Hard to compareL3-6 0-6Charleston · clayW3-6 6-4 6-3Beijing · hard
Head-to-head
5 meetings · Alexandrova E. leads 3–223
- Fernandez L.October 2026WuhanHard4-6 6-3 3-6
- Alexandrova E.January 2025AdelaideHard6-4 3-6 6-2
- Alexandrova E.August 2023US OpenHard7-6 5-7 6-4
- Alexandrova E.August 2022CincinnatiHard6-4 7-5
- Fernandez L.January 2022Adelaide 1Hard6-3 6-4
Evidence
Fernandez L.Alexandrova E.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)7–3
Season win rate49% (26–27) (ahead)48% (23–25)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19301976 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO18381847 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 51 vs 46 matches
1st-serve points won66%67% (ahead)
Return points won42%42%
Aces / match2.64.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 51 vs 46 matches
Break points saved63% (ahead)57%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-23/alexandrova-vs-fernandez-ningbo-open-ningbo-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 23 October 2026).