Daniil Medvedev vs Sho Shimabukuro — Almaty Round of 16
Why
Surface+356 Hard Elo edgeSupports Medvedev D.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1977Supports Medvedev D.
This eventReached the final here last yearSupports Medvedev D.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Shimabukuro S.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO2 132
Hard ELO2 029
Last 108–2
Age30
Height198 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $52.3M2026 $2.9M
ELO1 766
Hard ELO1 651
Last 102–8
Age29
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.2M2026 $427K
Daniil Medvedev faces Sho Shimabukuro in the Almaty round of 16 on hard. Daniil Medvedev holds the paper edge — ranked #5, defending the title, a roughly 360-point hard Elo advantage.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Daniil Medvedev 112 games in 14 days, Sho Shimabukuro 18.
- Under pressure: Daniil Medvedev has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 96 vs Sho Shimabukuro's 0).
- Last match: Sho Shimabukuro dropped the opening set before beating Roman Safiullin 6–7 6–4 6–4.
Common opponents
8 shared · last 12 monthsMedvedev D. and Shimabukuro S. faced 8 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Medvedev D. went 8–1 (89%) against them, Shimabukuro S. 4–4 (50%). Medvedev D. came out better against 3 of 8 comparable opponents, Shimabukuro S. against 0.
8–189%Medvedev D. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents4–450%Shimabukuro S. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
20–6Sets9–11
148–103Games102–105
0–3Tiebreaks1–4
2–0Deciding sets2–0
vs Tiafoe F.#9L6-7(1) 4-6 6-7(6)US Open · hardL4-6 5-7Halle · grass
vs Halys Q.#46W6-7 6-3 6-4 6-2Australian Open · hardW6-4 6-2Stuttgart · grass- vs Rinderknech A.#61W6-4 6-4 6-4US Open · hardL7-6(4) 2-6 6-7(4) 2-6US Open · hard
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vs Landaluce M.#67W1-6 6-4 7-5Rome Masters · clayW6-2 6-7 7-5Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Safiullin R.#70W7-5 6-4Hangzhou · hardW6-7(4) 6-4 6-4Almaty · hard
vs Cilic M.#84W6-1 6-2 6-4Wimbledon · grassL6-7(2) 1-6Montreal · hard- vs Gaston H.#93W6-4 6-2 6-4US Open · hardL4-6 4-6Hangzhou · hard
vs Budkov Kjaer N.#187W6-3 6-2Madrid Masters · clayW6-3 6-4Montreal · hard
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Evidence
Medvedev D.Shimabukuro S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)2–8
Season win rate72% (46–18) (ahead)51% (29–28)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2132 (ahead)1766
Hard-court ELO2029 (ahead)1651
Serve vs returnLast 63 vs 50 matches
1st-serve points won75% (ahead)72%
Return points won41% (ahead)36%
Aces / match8.8 (ahead)6.0
ClutchLast 63 vs 50 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)60%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Daniil Medvedev vs Sho Shimabukuro — Almaty Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/medvedev-vs-shimabukuro-almaty-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).