Sho Shimabukuro vs Roman Safiullin | Almaty Round of 32

UMPIRY

AlmatyR32HardTue 20 Oct · 11:00

Sho ShimabukuroATP #109 · JPN18%

VSStrong favourite · Safiullin R.

Roman SafiullinATP #79 · RUS82%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Safiullin R.

18%82%

Clear edge for Safiullin R. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Shimabukuro S.4.9/10

Heavy underdog

Safiullin R.6.7/10

Slight advantage

Why

Surface+97 Hard Elo edgeSupports Safiullin R.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1750Supports Safiullin R.

Recent run2-match win streakSupports Safiullin R.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Shimabukuro S.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO1 766

Hard ELO1 651

Last 102–8

Age29

Height180 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.2M2026 $427K

ELO2 001

Hard ELO1 819

Last 107–3

Age29

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $4.7M2026 $606K

Sho Shimabukuro faces Roman Safiullin in the Almaty round of 32 on hard. Roman Safiullin holds the paper edge — ranked #79, a roughly 100-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Sho Shimabukuro 18 games in 14 days, Roman Safiullin 125.
Surface form: Sho Shimabukuro 2 of 10, Roman Safiullin 7 of 10 on hard recently — Roman Safiullin the sharper of late.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Shimabukuro S. and Safiullin R. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Shimabukuro S. went 1–0 (100%) against them, Safiullin R. 1–0 (100%).

1–0100%Shimabukuro S. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–0100%Safiullin R. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

2–0Sets2–1

12–6Games17–14

0–0Deciding sets1–0

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Halys Q.#48W6-4 6-2Stuttgart · grassW5-7 6-3 6-4Hangzhou · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Shimabukuro S.Safiullin R.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss2–87–3

Season win rate50% (28–28)71% (41–17)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17662001

Hard-court ELO16511819

Serve vs returnLast 50 vs 56 matches

1st-serve points won72%73%

Return points won36%38%

Aces / match6.06.6

ClutchLast 50 vs 56 matches

Break points saved60%65%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast16°C · Clear

Wind3 km/h

Humidity29%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Shimabukuro S.Safiullin R.

12Days since last match1

0Matches · 7 days2

0Games · 7 days50

1Matches · 14 days6

18Games · 14 days125

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Sho Shimabukuro vs Roman Safiullin — Almaty Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-20/safiullin-vs-shimabukuro-almaty-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 20 October 2026).