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Jelena Ostapenko vs Belinda Bencic — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Round of 32

Ningbo Open - NingboR32HardMon 19 Oct · 12:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Bencic B.
33%67%

Clear edge for Bencic B. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Ostapenko J.5.6/10
Slight disadvantage
Bencic B.6.3/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+158 Hard Elo edgeSupports Bencic B.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1989Supports Bencic B.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headLeads 2–1 on hardSupports Bencic B.
Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Bencic B.
ELO1 952
Hard ELO1 791
Last 106–4
Age29
Height177 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $20.8M2026 $2.1M
ELO2 035
Hard ELO1 890
Last 104–6
Age29
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $17.4M2026 $2.6M

Jelena Ostapenko faces Belinda Bencic in the Ningbo Open - Ningbo round of 32 on hard. Belinda Bencic is the paper favourite — ranked #12, leading the head-to-head 2–1, a roughly 160-point hard Elo advantage — but Jelena Ostapenko arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 9 on hard to Belinda Bencic's 4 of 9.

Key context

Common opponents

13 shared · last 12 months
All 13 opponents →

Ostapenko J. and Bencic B. faced 13 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Ostapenko J. went 9–7 (56%) against them, Bencic B. 12–4 (75%). Bencic B. came out better against 3 of 13 comparable opponents, Ostapenko J. against 1.

9–756%Ostapenko J. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents12–475%Bencic B. · better vs 3
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
22–17Sets25–11
198–177Games196–154
2–3Tiebreaks6–2
3–4Deciding sets3–1
Show 10 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

3 meetings · Bencic B. leads 2–1
Full H2H →
12

Evidence

Ostapenko J.Bencic B.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate56% (27–21)67% (30–15) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19522035 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO17911890 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 48 vs 40 matches
1st-serve points won68% (ahead)67%
Return points won45%46% (ahead)
Aces / match4.2 (ahead)1.9
ClutchLast 48 vs 40 matches
Break points saved53%57% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

12:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast29°C · Mainly clear
Wind6 km/h
Humidity63%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Ostapenko J.Bencic B.
1Days since last match4 — fresher
5Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
114Games · 7 days18 — fresher
6Matches · 14 days2 — fresher
140Games · 14 days37 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Jelena Ostapenko vs Belinda Bencic — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/bencic-vs-ostapenko-ningbo-open-ningbo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).