Sumit Nagal vs Juan Bautista TorresCordenons Round of 16

Cordenons · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#241ATP
1543ELO
1538Clay ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWWLLL
Sets
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ·
clay
#288ATP
1369ELO
1357Clay ELO
24 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLLWWWL
Nagal S.
vs
Torres J.

Sumit Nagal faces Juan Bautista Torres in the Cordenons round of 16 on clay. Sumit Nagal holds the paper edge — ranked #241, a roughly 180-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Nagal S.74%
Torres J.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Nagal S. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.3+181 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.7Clay Elo 1357
7.2Overall Elo 1543
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1369
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.66 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Nagal S.Stable
Torres J.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

25 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
71%
69%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
60%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.9
0.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Nagal S.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Torres J.

Torres J.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Nagal S.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
33
8
Break points saved·Dominant
69
14
Break points won·Dominant
35
68
Deciding sets·Clear edge
16
4
Tiebreaks·Dominant
84
34

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
96
100

Nagal S.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Torres J.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 60%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.