Maxim Mrva vs Carlo Alberto Caniato — Cordenons Round of 32
Mrva M.
Maxim Mrva faces Carlo Alberto Caniato in the Cordenons round of 32 on clay. Maxim Mrva holds the paper edge — ranked #310, a roughly 170-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 03:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Mrva M. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Maxim Mrva rising, Carlo Alberto Caniato cooling.
- Fatigue load: Maxim Mrva carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
- Surface form: Maxim Mrva 6 of 10, Carlo Alberto Caniato 5 of 10 on clay recently — Maxim Mrva the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadMrva M.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d) · Caniato C.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
3rd on SERENA MANIVA CENTER · not before Followed By · 2 matches still to finish ahead
- 1Guillen Meza A. v Bondioli F.
- 2Martin Manzano J. v Mayot H.
- 3Mrva M. v Caniato C.This match
- 4Dellien H. v Xilas I.
- 5Nedic A. v Dalla Valle E.
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.