Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu — Cordenons Round of 32

Cordenons · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Sumit Nagal
IND3
Sumit Nagal
#241ATP
1543ELO
1538Clay ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWLLLL
—
Sets
Tuesday, 14 July 2026 ·
clay
SERENA WINES 1881 (12) · 1st on
ROU
Cezar Cretu
#268ATP
1524ELO
1492Clay ELO
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWWWLLL
Nagal S.
vs
Cretu C.

Sumit Nagal faces Cezar Cretu in the Cordenons round of 32 on clay. Sumit Nagal holds the paper edge — ranked #241, a roughly 50-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:20 UTC
Nagal S.51%
Cretu C.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nagal S.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Cretu C.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.6+45 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Clay Elo 1492
5.2Overall Elo 1543
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1524
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
5.75 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.14 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Nagal S.Stable
Cretu C.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

25 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season
Nagal S.Cretu C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
71%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
56%
Aces / match·Even
1.9
1.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Nagal S.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Cretu C.

Cretu C.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Nagal S.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Nagal S.Cretu C.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
33
25
Break points saved·Dominant
69
33
Break points won·Dominant
35
64
Deciding sets·Clear edge
16
31
Tiebreaks·
84
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Nagal S.Cretu C.
Freshness·Clear edge
96
80

Nagal S.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Cretu C.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

1st on SERENA WINES 1881 (12) · not before Starts At 10:00 AM · up next on court

  1. 1Nagal S. v Cretu C.This match
  2. 2Villanueva G. v Ribecai M.
  3. 3Roncadelli F. v Giustino L.
  4. 4Makk P. v Seyboth Wild T.

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°COvercast
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 67%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.