Federico Bondioli vs Guido Ivan JustoCordenons Round of 16

Cordenons · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#346ATP
1387ELO
1378Clay ELO
21 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWWLLLWLW
Sets
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ·
clay
#226ATP
1443ELO
1433Clay ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWWWLWW
Bondioli F.
vs
Justo G.

Federico Bondioli faces Guido Ivan Justo in the Cordenons round of 16 on clay. Guido Ivan Justo holds the paper edge — ranked #226, a roughly 50-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Bondioli F.43%
Justo G.57%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Clay Elo 1378
Surface ELO
5.7+55 Clay Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1387
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1443
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.45 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.87 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Justo G.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

18 vs 44 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Even
60%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
46%
Break points saved·Even
54%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.9
1.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.3
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Bondioli F.serving52% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Justo G.

Justo G.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Bondioli F.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
71
68

Bondioli F.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d) · Justo G.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 60%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.