Stefano Napolitano vs Alex Barrena — Cordenons Round of 16
ARG
Napolitano S.
Stefano Napolitano faces Alex Barrena in the Cordenons round of 16 on clay. Stefano Napolitano holds the paper edge — ranked #240, a roughly 170-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Napolitano S. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Stefano Napolitano comes in with 21 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Alex Barrena's 4 and 87.
- Last match: Alex Barrena dropped the opening set before beating Franco Agamenone 6–7 6–4 7–5.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadNapolitano S.: 21 days rest · Barrena A.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.