Nicolas Mejia vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Bogota Semi-final
Mejia N.
Nicolas Mejia faces Juan Pablo Varillas in the Bogota semi-final on clay. Nicolas Mejia holds the paper edge — ranked #165, a roughly 60-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Mejia N. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Nicolas Mejia comes in with 1 days of rest and 139 games in 14d, vs Juan Pablo Varillas's 2 and 105.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Juan Pablo Varillas has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 55 vs 24).
- Last match: Nicolas Mejia dropped just 5 games past Hernan Casanova.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMejia N.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Varillas J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.