Juan Sebastian Gomez vs Eduardo RibeiroBogota Round of 32

Bogota · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#562ATP
1231ELO
1221Clay ELO
34 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLLLLWW
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
clay
#375ATP
1377ELO
1364Clay ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWLWLWL
Gomez J.
vs
Ribeiro E.

Juan Sebastian Gomez faces Eduardo Ribeiro in the Bogota round of 32 on clay. Eduardo Ribeiro holds the paper edge — ranked #375, a roughly 140-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Gomez J.22%
Ribeiro E.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ribeiro E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Juan Sebastian Gomez comes in with 4 days of rest and 21 games in 14d, vs Eduardo Ribeiro's 2 and 60.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Juan Sebastian Gomez has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 39 vs 9).
  • Surface form: Both 3 of 8 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Clay Elo 1221
Surface ELO
6.8+143 Clay Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1231
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1377
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.45 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.55 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Gomez J.Not enough recent matches
Ribeiro E.Sliding

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

3 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
64%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
35%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
52%
60%
Return points won·Even
37%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
36%
58%
Aces / match·Even
2.3
2.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.0
1.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (3 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Gomez J.serving55% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Ribeiro E.

Ribeiro E.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Gomez J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
39
9
Break points saved·Dominant
10
64
Break points won·Dominant
58
14
Deciding sets·Dominant
89
17
Tiebreaks·
0

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
80

Gomez J.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Ribeiro E.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.