Alan Magadan vs Matias Soto — Bogota Round of 16
Magadan A.
Alan Magadan faces Matias Soto in the Bogota round of 16 on clay. Matias Soto holds the paper edge — ranked #296, a roughly 170-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Soto M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Alan Magadan 100 games in 14 days, Matias Soto 88.
- Last match: Alan Magadan edged Johan Alexander Rodriguez Rodriguez in two tight sets (7–5 7–5).
- Surface form: Both 5 of 10 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadMagadan A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 100 games (7d) · Soto M.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.