Juan Pablo Varillas vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida — Bogota Quarter-final
Varillas J.
Juan Pablo Varillas faces Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the Bogota quarter-final on clay. Juan Pablo Varillas is the paper favourite — ranked #308, a roughly 30-point clay Elo advantage — but Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida arrives in form, winning 9 of their last 10 on clay to Juan Pablo Varillas's 4.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Juan Pablo Varillas comes in with 2 days of rest and 72 games in 14d, vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida's 1 and 230.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Juan Pablo Varillas has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 55 vs 5).
- Last match: Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida dropped just 5 games past Eduardo Ribeiro.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadVarillas J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Pucinelli De Almeida M.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 133 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.