Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic — Wimbledon Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Semi-final
Jannik Sinner
ITA
Jannik Sinner
#1ATP
2320ELO
2088Grass ELO
$6.9MYTD
$65MCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLWWWW
—
Sets
Friday, 10 July 2026 ·
grass
Novak Djokovic
SRB
Novak Djokovic
#8ATP
2059ELO
1925Grass ELO
$1.8MYTD
$193MCAREER
39 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLWWLL
Sinner J.
vs
Djokovic N.

Jannik Sinner faces Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon semi-final on grass. Jannik Sinner holds the paper edge — ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 6–5, defending the title. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:21 UTC
Sinner J.88%
Djokovic N.12%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sinner J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Head-to-head: Jannik Sinner leads the head-to-head 6–5, 1–2 on grass. Last met at Australian Open 2026.
  • Fatigue load: Both played five three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Win streak: Both arrive on five-match winning runs.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sinner J.
8.1
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Djokovic N.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+163 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Grass Elo 1925
8.3Overall Elo 2320
ELO gap
1.7Overall Elo 2059
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
10.010 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.29 of last 10 on grass
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
6.8Won 81% in GBR (31)
Country comfort
7.2Won 87% in GBR (135)
Context
Defending pts
8.5Reached the semis here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Sinner J.Sliding
Djokovic N.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

32 vs 10 matches

Statistics

This season
Sinner J.Djokovic N.
1st serve in·Even
65%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
81%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
60%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
73%
67%
Return points won·Even
41%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
75%
69%
Aces / match·Clear edge
9.0
7.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.3
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sinner J.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Djokovic N.

Djokovic N.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Sinner J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Sinner J.Djokovic N.
Clutch Rating·Even
100
99
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Even
100
99
Deciding sets·Even
100
100
Tiebreaks·Even
100
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Sinner J.Djokovic N.
Freshness·Slight edge
57
50

Sinner J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 96 games (7d) · Djokovic N.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 109 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 47%

Head to head

6–5
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenSFhardNovak Djokovic3-6 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-4
2025-06-30WimbledonSFgrassJannik Sinner6-3 6-3 6-4
2025-05-26Roland GarrosSFclayJannik Sinner6-4 7-5 7-6(3)
2024-10-02Shanghai MastersFhardJannik Sinner7-6(4) 6-3
2024-01-15Australian OpenSFhardJannik Sinner6-1 6-2 6-7(6) 6-3
2023-11-25Davis Cup Finals SF: ITA vs SRBRRhardJannik Sinner6-2 2-6 7-5
2023-11-13Tour FinalsFhardNovak Djokovic6-3 6-3
2023-11-13Tour FinalsRRhardJannik Sinner7-5 6-7(5) 7-6(2)
2023-07-03WimbledonSFgrassNovak Djokovic6-3 6-4 7-6(4)
2022-06-27WimbledonQFgrassNovak Djokovic5-7 2-6 6-3 6-2 6-2
2021-04-12Monte Carlo MastersR32clayNovak Djokovic6-4 6-2
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-31-66-36-4
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Struff J.
6-46-766-757-666-77
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
7-626-37-5
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.[24]
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.[7]
3-64-62-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
6-36-26-2
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
2-66-26-756-46-3
Khachanov K.[19]
Hanfmann Y.
6-36-46-4
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-746-36-731-6
Mensik J.[15]
Dimitrov G.
6-756-45-73-6
Berrettini M.
Fils A.[20]
6-47-53-66-3
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
7-664-66-26-3
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
5-77-636-36-3
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
6-26-27-5
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
6-746-46-747-662-6
Tiafoe F.[17]
Choinski J.
4-66-27-56-2
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.[10]
3-64-66-75
Lehecka J.[13]
Molcan A.
6-36-26-4
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
4-66-734-6
Halys Q.
Giron M.
6-753-64-6
Royer V.
Zverev A.[2]
1-63-66-73
Sinner J.[1]
Brooksby J.
6-46-36-4
Jodar R.[23]
Mochizuki S.
6-16-754-64-6
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.[21]
4-67-657-56-2
Struff J.
Medvedev D.[8]
7-647-657-5
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Zheng M.
7-616-26-1
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Fucsovics M.
7-636-26-3
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-36-36-3
Rinderknech A.[25]
Djokovic N.[7]
5-74-66-16-74
De Minaur A.[5]
Svajda Z.
6-25-76-26-4
Khachanov K.[19]
Cobolli F.[9]
6-06-747-652-62-6
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
6-36-43-65-76-3
Bergs Z.
Fery A.
6-25-76-26-736-75
Fritz T.[6]
Sonego L.
4-66-36-47-65
Tiafoe F.[17]
Bublik A.[10]
6-46-756-7116-43-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Munar J.
6-46-44-66-4
Giron M.
Zverev A.[2]
2-66-744-6
Sinner J.[1]
Mochizuki S.
6-37-606-3
Hurkacz H.
Struff J.
6-37-656-725-72-4
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
6-747-666-36-726-1
Safiullin R.
Djokovic N.[7]
6-763-66-33-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Cobolli F.[9]
5-76-743-6
Dimitrov G.
Fery A.
5-76-36-44-66-77
Fritz T.[6]
Bublik A.[10]
7-616-46-4
Lehecka J.[13]
Zverev A.[2]
4-65-76-36-76
Sinner J.
Struff J.
7-57-646-3
Auger Aliassime F.
Djokovic N.
6-7106-33-67-646-74
Cobolli F.
Fery A.
Fritz T.
Zverev A.
Sinner J.
Djokovic N.
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