Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev — Wimbledon Final

Wimbledon · ATP · Final
Jannik Sinner
ITA
Jannik Sinner
#1ATP
2320ELO
2088Grass ELO
$6.9MYTD
$65MCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLWWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 12 July 2026 ·
grass
Alexander Zverev
GER
Alexander Zverev
#3ATP
2100ELO
1914Grass ELO
$6.5MYTD
$66MCAREER
29 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLWWW
Sinner J.
vs
Zverev A.

Jannik Sinner faces Alexander Zverev in the Wimbledon final on grass. Jannik Sinner holds the paper edge — ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 10–4, defending the title. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:21 UTC
Sinner J.87%
Zverev A.13%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sinner J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Head-to-head: Jannik Sinner leads the head-to-head 10–4; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Madrid Masters 2026.
  • Fatigue load: Both played six three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Win streak: Both arrive on six-match winning runs.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sinner J.
8.0
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Zverev A.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.2+175 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Grass Elo 1914
7.8Overall Elo 2320
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 2100
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
10.010 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.29 of last 10 on grass
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.06 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.06 three-setters in 14 days
6.9Won 81% in GBR (32)
Country comfort
6.3Won 71% in GBR (31)
Context
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Sinner J.Cooling
Zverev A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

32 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
Sinner J.Zverev A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
71%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
81%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
60%
57%
Service points won·Even
73%
71%
Return points won·Even
41%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
75%
55%
Aces / match·Even
9.0
9.1
Double faults / match·Even
1.3
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sinner J.serving96% hold

wins 76% of points on serve vs Zverev A.

Zverev A.serving92% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Sinner J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Sinner J.Zverev A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
100
94
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Slight edge
100
90
Deciding sets·Even
100
99
Tiebreaks·Even
100
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Sinner J.Zverev A.
Freshness·Slight edge
60
51

Sinner J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 94 games (7d) · Zverev A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 103 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 22 km/hHumidity 31%

Head to head

10–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-22Madrid MastersFclayJannik Sinner6-1 6-2
2026-04-05Monte Carlo MastersSFclayJannik Sinner6-1 6-4
2026-03-18Miami MastersSFhardJannik Sinner6-3 7-6(4)
2026-03-04Indian Wells MastersSFhardJannik Sinner6-2 6-4
2025-11-09Tour FinalsRRhardJannik Sinner6-4 6-3
2025-10-27Paris MastersSFhardJannik Sinner6-0 6-1
2025-10-20ViennaFhardJannik Sinner3-6 6-3 7-5
2025-01-13Australian OpenFhardJannik Sinner6-3 7-6(4) 6-3
2024-08-12Cincinnati MastersSFhardJannik Sinner7-6(9) 5-7 7-6(4)
2023-08-28US OpenR16hardAlexander Zverev6-4 3-6 6-2 4-6 6-3
2022-04-11Monte Carlo MastersQFclayAlexander Zverev5-7 6-3 7-6(5)
2021-08-30US OpenR16hardAlexander Zverev6-4 6-4 7-6(7)
2020-10-19Cologne 2SFhardAlexander Zverev7-6(3) 6-3
2020-09-28Roland GarrosR16clayJannik Sinner6-3 6-3 4-6 6-3
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-31-66-36-4
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Struff J.
6-46-766-757-666-77
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
7-626-37-5
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.[24]
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.[7]
3-64-62-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
6-36-26-2
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
2-66-26-756-46-3
Khachanov K.[19]
Hanfmann Y.
6-36-46-4
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-746-36-731-6
Mensik J.[15]
Dimitrov G.
6-756-45-73-6
Berrettini M.
Fils A.[20]
6-47-53-66-3
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
7-664-66-26-3
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
5-77-636-36-3
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
6-26-27-5
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
6-746-46-747-662-6
Tiafoe F.[17]
Choinski J.
4-66-27-56-2
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.[10]
3-64-66-75
Lehecka J.[13]
Molcan A.
6-36-26-4
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
4-66-734-6
Halys Q.
Giron M.
6-753-64-6
Royer V.
Zverev A.[2]
1-63-66-73
Sinner J.[1]
Brooksby J.
6-46-36-4
Jodar R.[23]
Mochizuki S.
6-16-754-64-6
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.[21]
4-67-657-56-2
Struff J.
Medvedev D.[8]
7-647-657-5
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Zheng M.
7-616-26-1
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Fucsovics M.
7-636-26-3
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-36-36-3
Rinderknech A.[25]
Djokovic N.[7]
5-74-66-16-74
De Minaur A.[5]
Svajda Z.
6-25-76-26-4
Khachanov K.[19]
Cobolli F.[9]
6-06-747-652-62-6
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
6-36-43-65-76-3
Bergs Z.
Fery A.
6-25-76-26-736-75
Fritz T.[6]
Sonego L.
4-66-36-47-65
Tiafoe F.[17]
Bublik A.[10]
6-46-756-7116-43-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Munar J.
6-46-44-66-4
Giron M.
Zverev A.[2]
2-66-744-6
Sinner J.[1]
Mochizuki S.
6-37-606-3
Hurkacz H.
Struff J.
6-37-656-725-72-4
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
6-747-666-36-726-1
Safiullin R.
Djokovic N.[7]
6-763-66-33-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Cobolli F.[9]
5-76-743-6
Dimitrov G.
Fery A.
5-76-36-44-66-77
Fritz T.[6]
Bublik A.[10]
7-616-46-4
Lehecka J.[13]
Zverev A.[2]
4-65-76-36-76
Sinner J.[1]
Struff J.
7-57-646-3
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Djokovic N.[7]
6-7106-33-67-646-74
Cobolli F.[9]
Fery A.
4-66-740-6
Fritz T.[6]
Zverev A.[2]
4-64-62-6
Sinner J.[1]
Djokovic N.[7]
6-46-46-4
Fery A.
Zverev A.[2]
6-702-64-6
Sinner J.
Zverev A.