Felix Auger Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic — Wimbledon Quarter-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Quarter-final
Felix Auger Aliassime
CAN
Felix Auger Aliassime
#4ATP
1958ELO
1789Grass ELO
$2.1MYTD
$23MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWLWL
—
Sets
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 ·
grass
Novak Djokovic
SRB
Novak Djokovic
#8ATP
2059ELO
1925Grass ELO
$1.8MYTD
$193MCAREER
39 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWLLW
Auger Aliassime F.
vs
Djokovic N.

Felix Auger Aliassime faces Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon quarter-final on grass. Felix Auger Aliassime holds the paper edge — ranked #4, defending last year's round of 64. Recent grass form is closely matched. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, though this is their first meeting on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:20 UTC
Auger Aliassime F.29%
Djokovic N.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Djokovic N. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Auger Aliassime F.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Djokovic N.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Grass Elo 1789
Surface ELO
6.7+136 Grass Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1958
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 2059
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
7.77 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.39 of last 10 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
6.0Won 67% in GBR (21)
Country comfort
7.2Won 87% in GBR (134)
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
8.5Reached the semis here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Auger Aliassime F.Stable
Djokovic N.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

26 vs 10 matches

Statistics

This season
Auger Aliassime F.Djokovic N.
1st serve in·Even
68%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
78%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
55%
Service points won·Even
70%
67%
Return points won·Even
36%
39%
Break points saved·Even
65%
69%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.7
7.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Auger Aliassime F.serving93% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Djokovic N.

Djokovic N.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Auger Aliassime F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Auger Aliassime F.Djokovic N.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
84
99
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Dominant
50
99
Deciding sets·Even
99
100
Tiebreaks·Even
99
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Auger Aliassime F.Djokovic N.
Freshness·Clear edge
68
56

Auger Aliassime F.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 88 games (7d) · Djokovic N.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 111 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-09-23Laver CupRRhardFelix Auger Aliassime6-3 7-6(3)
2022-05-09Rome MastersQFclayNovak Djokovic7-5 7-6(1)
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-31-66-36-4
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Struff J.
6-46-766-757-666-77
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
7-626-37-5
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.[24]
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.[7]
3-64-62-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
6-36-26-2
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
2-66-26-756-46-3
Khachanov K.[19]
Hanfmann Y.
6-36-46-4
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-746-36-731-6
Mensik J.[15]
Dimitrov G.
6-756-45-73-6
Berrettini M.
Fils A.[20]
6-47-53-66-3
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
7-664-66-26-3
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
5-77-636-36-3
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
6-26-27-5
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
6-746-46-747-662-6
Tiafoe F.[17]
Choinski J.
4-66-27-56-2
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.[10]
3-64-66-75
Lehecka J.[13]
Molcan A.
6-36-26-4
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
4-66-734-6
Halys Q.
Giron M.
6-753-64-6
Royer V.
Zverev A.[2]
1-63-66-73
Sinner J.[1]
Brooksby J.
6-46-36-4
Jodar R.[23]
Mochizuki S.
6-16-754-64-6
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.[21]
4-67-657-56-2
Struff J.
Medvedev D.[8]
7-647-657-5
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Zheng M.
7-616-26-1
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Fucsovics M.
7-636-26-3
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-36-36-3
Rinderknech A.[25]
Djokovic N.[7]
5-74-66-16-74
De Minaur A.[5]
Svajda Z.
6-25-76-26-4
Khachanov K.[19]
Cobolli F.[9]
6-06-747-652-62-6
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
6-36-43-65-76-3
Bergs Z.
Fery A.
6-25-76-26-736-75
Fritz T.[6]
Sonego L.
4-66-36-47-65
Tiafoe F.[17]
Bublik A.[10]
6-46-756-7116-43-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Munar J.
6-46-44-66-4
Giron M.
Zverev A.[2]
2-66-744-6
Sinner J.
Mochizuki S.
6-37-606-3
Hurkacz H.
Struff J.
6-37-656-725-72-4
Auger Aliassime F.
Davidovich Fokina A.
6-747-666-36-726-1
Safiullin R.
Djokovic N.[7]
6-763-66-33-6
De Minaur A.
Cobolli F.
Dimitrov G.
Fery A.
Fritz T.
Bublik A.
Lehecka J.
Zverev A.
Sinner J.
Struff J.
Auger Aliassime F.
Djokovic N.
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