Daniil Glinka vs Edward Winter

Cary · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

EST

Daniil Glinka

#168ATP

1485ELO

1495Hard ELO

$127kYTD

$264kCAREER

26 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

WLLLLWLWLW

—

Sets

Wednesday, 1 July 2026 · 12:00

hard

COURT 4 · 2nd on

AUSQ

Edward Winter

#434ATP

1434ELO

1404Hard ELO

21 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWLLLWLWL

Glinka D.

Winter E.

Daniil Glinka faces Edward Winter in the Cary round of 16 on hard. Daniil Glinka is the paper favourite — ranked #168, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage — but Edward Winter rides a 3-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:20 UTC

Glinka D.59%

Winter E.41%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Glinka D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Edward Winter advanced when Andrew Fenty retired.
Fatigue load: Edward Winter carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Win streak: Edward Winter arrives on a 3-match winning run.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Glinka D.

6.4

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Winter E.

5.1

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

6.1+91 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.9Hard Elo 1404

5.6Overall Elo 1485

ELO gap

4.4Overall Elo 1434

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

4.44 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

7.27 of last 10 on hard

Win streak

7.03-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Glinka D.Stable

Winter E.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

30 vs 12 matches

Statistics

This season

Glinka D.Winter E.

1st serve in·Slight edge

58%

65%

1st serve points won·Even

70%

69%

2nd serve points won·Even

49%

Service points won·Even

61%

62%

Return points won·Even

39%

40%

Break points saved·Even

59%

62%

Aces / match·Clear edge

4.9

2.3

Double faults / match·Even

2.7

2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Glinka D.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Winter E.

Winter E.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Glinka D.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Glinka D.Winter E.

Freshness·Slight edge

Glinka D.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d) · Winter E.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

2nd on COURT 4 · not before Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead

1W. Manning v Mmoh M.09:10
2Glinka D. v Winter E.This match

Conditions

Weather forecast

31°CClear

Wind 8 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Daniil Glinka vs Edward Winter — Cary Round of 16