Liam Broady vs Jack KennedyCary Round of 16

Cary · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#209ATP
1601ELO
1583Hard ELO
32 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLLLWLWLWL
Sets
Wednesday, 1 July 2026 ·
hard
1581ELO
1411Hard ELO
18 yrs
Last 10
WLWWWWLWWW
Broady L.
vs
Kennedy J.

Liam Broady faces Jack Kennedy in the Cary round of 16 on hard. Liam Broady is the paper favourite — a roughly 170-point hard Elo advantage — but Jack Kennedy rides a 4-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:21 UTC
Broady L.81%
Kennedy J.19%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Broady L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.2+172 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Hard Elo 1410
5.3Overall Elo 1601
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1581
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.73 of last 7 on hard
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Broady L.Sliding
Kennedy J.Surging

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 12 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
62%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
55%
43%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
54%
Return points won·Even
45%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
49%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.3
1.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.3
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Broady L.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Kennedy J.

Kennedy J.serving50% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Broady L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
90

Broady L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.