Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro — Stuttgart Quarter-final

Stuttgart · ATP · Quarter-final

USA

Ben Shelton

#5ATP

1938ELO

1785Grass ELO

$1.8MYTD

$13MCAREER

23 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Friday, 12 June 2026 · 18:50

grass

CENTER COURT · 3rd on

JPNQ

Sho Shimabukuro

#104ATP

1605ELO

1566Grass ELO

$163kYTD

$933kCAREER

28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Ben Shelton faces Sho Shimabukuro in the Stuttgart quarter-final on grass. Ben Shelton is the paper favourite — ranked #5, defending last year's semi-final, a roughly 220-point grass Elo advantage — but Sho Shimabukuro rides a 4-match win streak.

Key context

Last match: Ben Shelton dropped the opening set before beating Marcos Giron 6–7 6–4 7–6.
Last match: Sho Shimabukuro dropped the opening set before beating N. Kyrgios 4–6 7–6 6–4.
Win streak: Sho Shimabukuro arrives on a 4-match winning run.
Stage: Ben Shelton defends last year's semi-final.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:21 UTC

Shelton B.88%

Shimabukuro S.12%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Shelton B. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Shelton B.

6.5

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Shimabukuro S.

4.7

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

7.7+219 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.3Grass Elo 1566

9.2Overall Elo 1938

ELO gap

0.8Overall Elo 1605

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.66 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

7.77 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

7.04-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3.0Clay → Grass

Surface transition

Context

8.5Reached the semis here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

When it starts

3rd on CENTER COURT · not before Not Before 15:00 · 1 match still to finish ahead

Conditions

Weather forecast

17°COvercast

Wind 14 km/hHumidity 77%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Shelton B.Shimabukuro S.

66%1st serve in+8%58%

78%1st serve points won+6%72%

60%2nd serve points won+6%54%

72%Service points won+8%64%

31%Return points won+5%36%

77%Break points saved+12%65%

12.1Aces / match+5.96.2

2.8Double faults / match+0.52.3

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.