Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe — Stuttgart Round of 16

Stuttgart · ATP · Round of 16

AUS

Rinky Hijikata

#106ATP

1683ELO

1602Grass ELO

$396kYTD

$3.9MCAREER

25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWWLLWWWW

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Sets

Thursday, 11 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

USA

Frances Tiafoe

#26ATP

1866ELO

1734Grass ELO

$980kYTD

$17MCAREER

28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWWWLWLWL

Rinky Hijikata faces Frances Tiafoe in the Stuttgart round of 16 on grass. Frances Tiafoe holds the paper edge — ranked #26, leading the head-to-head 3–1, a roughly 130-point grass Elo advantage.

Key context

Last match: Rinky Hijikata dropped the opening set before beating Tom Gentzsch 6–7 7–6 6–3.
Last match: Frances Tiafoe edged Daniel Altmaier in three tight sets (7–6 4–6 6–4).
Head-to-head: Frances Tiafoe leads the head-to-head 3–1, 1–0 on grass. Last met at Houston 2026.
Fatigue load: Frances Tiafoe carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:22 UTC

Hijikata R.22%

Tiafoe F.78%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Tiafoe F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Hijikata R.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Tiafoe F.

6.9

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

3.4Grass Elo 1602

Surface ELO

6.6+132 Grass Elo edge

2.7Overall Elo 1683

ELO gap

7.3Overall Elo 1866

7.0Leads 1–0 on grass

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on grass

5.65 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

5.25 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

0.04 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

16°COvercast

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 55%

Head to head

1–3

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-03-30	Houston	R16	clay	Frances Tiafoe	6-4 3-6 6-2
2026-02-16	Delray Beach	R32	hard	Frances Tiafoe	6-4 6-4
2024-06-17	Queen's Club	R32	grass	Rinky Hijikata	7-5 4-6 1-0 RET
2023-08-28	US Open	R16	hard	Frances Tiafoe	6-4 6-1 6-4