Upset Audit

ATP Tour Halle 2026: the biggest upsets

The most surprising results of ATP Tour Halle 2026 in Halle Westfalen, Germany, ranked by the Umpiry Surprise Score— 100 minus the winner's frozen pre-match win probability. The higher the score, the bigger the shock. Tap any result for the full match.

1

Altmaier D.def.Medvedev D.

ATP Tour Halle 2026 — Quarterfinal6-4 6-7 6-4

Pre-match WP: Altmaier D. 12% · Medvedev D. 88%

88

Umpiry
Surprise Score

2

Bellucci M.def.Bublik A.

ATP Tour Halle 2026 — Round of 327-6 6-1

Pre-match WP: Bellucci M. 17% · Bublik A. 83%

83

Umpiry
Surprise Score

3

Altmaier D.def.Hurkacz H.

ATP Tour Halle 2026 — Round of 166-3 3-6 5-7

Pre-match WP: Altmaier D. 19% · Hurkacz H. 81%

81

Umpiry
Surprise Score

4

Shimabukuro S.def.Griekspoor T.

ATP Tour Halle 2026 — Round of 324-6 6-3 4-6

Pre-match WP: Shimabukuro S. 19% · Griekspoor T. 81%

81

Umpiry
Surprise Score

5

Fritz T.def.Zverev A.

ATP Tour Halle 2026 — Semifinal7-6 4-6 5-7

Pre-match WP: Fritz T. 23% · Zverev A. 77%

77

Umpiry
Surprise Score

6

Hanfmann Y.def.Fonseca J.

ATP Tour Halle 2026 — Round of 322-6 2-6

Pre-match WP: Hanfmann Y. 23% · Fonseca J. 77%

77

Umpiry
Surprise Score

7

Tiafoe F.def.Auger Aliassime F.

ATP Tour Halle 2026 — Quarterfinal3-6 6-3 7-6

Pre-match WP: Tiafoe F. 25% · Auger Aliassime F. 75%

75

Umpiry
Surprise Score

8

Hurkacz H.def.Rublev A.

ATP Tour Halle 2026 — Round of 323-6 2-6

Pre-match WP: Hurkacz H. 28% · Rublev A. 72%

72

Umpiry
Surprise Score

The Umpiry Surprise Score uses a calibrated win probability frozen at match start, never recomputed in hindsight. Only genuine shocks are listed — main-draw results where the winner was a clear underdog (Surprise Score 70+, i.e. a pre-match win probability of 30% or below). It is statistical information, not a betting recommendation.