Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisR16HardThu 5 Nov · ~15:30COURT 1 · After 1 match

Nuno BorgesATP #49 · POR62%

VSSlight edge · Borges N.

Ignacio BuseATP #33 · PER38%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Borges N.

62%38%

Borges N. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Borges N.4.9/10

Heavy underdog

Buse I.5.1/10

Clear underdog

Why

Surface+52 Hard Elo edgeSupports Borges N.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1822Against the prediction · Buse I.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Buse I.

Recent run2-match win streakBoth players

Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players

ELO2 000

Hard ELO1 845

Last 106–4

Age29

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $5.9M2026 $1.5M

ELO1 920

Hard ELO1 678

Last 106–4

Age22

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.9M2026 $1.3M

Nuno Borges faces Ignacio Buse in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris round of 16 on hard. Ignacio Buse holds the paper edge — ranked #33, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Nuno Borges 144 games in 14 days, Ignacio Buse 66.
Serve & return: Nuno Borges brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 45), Ignacio Buse the stronger return game (Return Rating 57).
Head-to-head: Ignacio Buse leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Davis Cup WG1 R1: PER vs POR 2025.

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Borges N. and Buse I. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Borges N. went 6–3 (67%) against them, Buse I. 2–4 (33%). Borges N. came out clearly better against 3 of 5 comparable opponents, Buse I. against 0.

6–367%Borges N. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents2–433%Buse I. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

15–6Sets6–10

114–87Games72–80

2–0Tiebreaks1–0

1–2Deciding sets0–1

vs Nakashima B.#18L3-6 7-6(5) 3-6Cincinnati · hardL2-6 2-6London · grass
vs Rublev A.#22L5-7Roland Garros · clayL3-6 3-6 5-7Roland Garros · clay
vs Etcheverry T.#31W6-4 6-2Montreal · hardL2-6 5-7Kitzbuhel · clay

Show 2 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Mannarino A.#59W4-6 6-1 7-5Rolex Paris Masters - Paris · hardL6-0 5-7 4-6Vienna · hard
vs Nava E.#122W7-6 7-5Indian Wells Masters · hardW7-6 3-6 7-5 6-0Wimbledon · grass

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Buse I. leads 1–0

Buse I.September 2025Davis Cup WG1 R1: PER vs PORClay3-6 6-3 6-2

Evidence

Borges N.Buse I.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–46–4

Season win rate52% (32–30)57% (31–23)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20001920

Hard-court ELO18451678

Serve vs returnLast 60 vs 49 matches

1st-serve points won74%70%

Return points won36%39%

Aces / match6.74.2

ClutchLast 60 vs 49 matches

Break points saved65%59%

When it starts

COURT 1 · After 1 match · Followed by

1Hijikata R. v Etcheverry T.Not before 2:00 PM
2This match: Borges N. v Buse I.This match
3Struff J. v Ruud C.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT 1 · ~15:30 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast11°C · Partly cloudy

Wind7 km/h

Humidity56%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Borges N.Buse I.

1Days since last match1

5Matches · 7 days2

102Games · 7 days38

7Matches · 14 days3

144Games · 14 days66

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-05/borges-vs-buse-rolex-paris-masters-paris-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 5 November 2026).