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Adrian Mannarino vs Ignacio Buse — Vienna Round of 32

ViennaR32HardTue 27 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
52%48%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Mannarino A.6.4/10
Marginal edge
Buse I.6.6/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+14 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Buse I.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1822Against the prediction · Buse I.
Recent run2-match win streakSupports Mannarino A.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players
ELO1 913
Hard ELO1 791
Last 107–3
Age38
Height180 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $15.6M2026 $1.3M
ELO1 893
Hard ELO1 644
Last 106–4
Age22
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.9M2026 $1.3M

Adrian Mannarino faces Ignacio Buse in the Vienna round of 32 on hard. Ignacio Buse holds the paper edge — ranked #33, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

6 shared · last 12 months

Mannarino A. and Buse I. faced 6 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Mannarino A. went 2–4 (33%) against them, Buse I. 2–4 (33%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 2 better-results split).

2–433%Mannarino A. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents2–433%Buse I. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
5–9Sets5–10
61–75Games59–75
1–1Deciding sets1–1
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Head-to-head

1 meeting · Buse I. leads 1–0
01

Evidence

Mannarino A.Buse I.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate44% (25–32)57% (29–22) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1913 (ahead)1893
Hard-court ELO1791 (ahead)1644
Serve vs returnLast 57 vs 46 matches
1st-serve points won71% (ahead)69%
Return points won35%38% (ahead)
Aces / match4.8 (ahead)4.0
ClutchLast 57 vs 46 matches
Break points saved56%59% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast8°C · Clear
Wind2 km/h
Humidity72%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Mannarino A.Buse I.
1Days since last match15 — fresher
4Matches · 7 days0 — fresher
99Games · 7 days0 — fresher
5Matches · 14 days0 — fresher
117Games · 14 days0 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Adrian Mannarino vs Ignacio Buse — Vienna Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/buse-vs-mannarino-vienna-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).