UMPIRY
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Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Qualifying Round of 32

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisQ32QualifyingHardSat 31 Oct · 16:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Borges N.
64%36%

Borges N. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Borges N.5.4/10
Clear underdog
Mannarino A.4.9/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+67 Hard Elo edgeSupports Borges N.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1769Supports Borges N.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Borges N.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Borges N.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 986
Hard ELO1 830
Last 105–5
Age29
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $5.9M2026 $1.5M
ELO1 936
Hard ELO1 809
Last 107–3
Age38
Height180 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $15.6M2026 $1.3M

Nuno Borges faces Adrian Mannarino in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris qualifying round of 32 on hard. Nuno Borges is the paper favourite — ranked #53, leading the head-to-head 3–0, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage — but Adrian Mannarino arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on hard to Nuno Borges's 5 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

4 shared · last 12 months

Borges N. and Mannarino A. faced 4 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Borges N. went 2–5 (29%) against them, Mannarino A. 5–0 (100%). Mannarino A. came out better against 3 of 4 comparable opponents, Borges N. against 0.

2–529%Borges N. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents5–0100%Mannarino A. · better vs 3
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
6–12Sets9–2
77–88Games63–48
0–1Tiebreaks2–0
0–1Deciding sets2–0

Only 4 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

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Head-to-head

3 meetings · Borges N. leads 3–0
30

Grass: Borges N. leads 1–0 · Clay: Borges N. leads 1–0 · Hard: Borges N. leads 1–0

Evidence

Borges N.Mannarino A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–57–3 (ahead)
Season win rate50% (29–29) (ahead)45% (27–33)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1986 (ahead)1936
Hard-court ELO1830 (ahead)1809
Serve vs returnLast 56 vs 60 matches
1st-serve points won74% (ahead)71%
Return points won35%35%
Aces / match6.6 (ahead)4.7
ClutchLast 56 vs 60 matches
Break points saved65% (ahead)57%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

16:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast15°C · Clear
Wind11 km/h
Humidity56%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Borges N.Mannarino A.
1Days since last match1
3 — fresherMatches · 7 days5
59 — fresherGames · 7 days110
3 — fresherMatches · 14 days8
59 — fresherGames · 14 days186
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-31/borges-vs-mannarino-rolex-paris-masters-paris-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 31 October 2026).