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Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Berrettini — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 64

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisR64HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
56%44%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Nakashima B.6.0/10
Even match
Berrettini M.5.9/10
Even match
Why
Surface+10 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Berrettini M.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1839Supports Nakashima B.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardSupports Nakashima B.
Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Berrettini M.
ELO2 033
Hard ELO1 883
Last 105–5
Age25
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $9.2M2026 $2.2M
ELO2 011
Hard ELO1 839
Last 105–5
Age30
Height196 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $15.0M2026 $1.2M

Brandon Nakashima faces Matteo Berrettini in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris round of 64 on hard. Brandon Nakashima is the paper favourite — ranked #17 — but Matteo Berrettini arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 7 on hard to Brandon Nakashima's 3 of 7. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.

Key context

Common opponents

11 shared · last 12 months

Nakashima B. and Berrettini M. faced 11 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Nakashima B. went 11–2 (85%) against them, Berrettini M. 8–3 (73%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 1 better-results split).

11–285%Nakashima B. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents8–373%Berrettini M. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
25–7Sets18–8
194–137Games137–97
4–3Tiebreaks0–2
3–2Deciding sets2–1
Show 8 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1
11

Evidence

Nakashima B.Berrettini M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–55–5
Season win rate62% (38–23) (ahead)55% (23–19)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2033 (ahead)2011
Hard-court ELO1883 (ahead)1839
Serve vs returnLast 58 vs 42 matches
1st-serve points won78% (ahead)77%
Return points won35% (ahead)34%
Aces / match10.3 (ahead)9.0
ClutchLast 58 vs 42 matches
Break points saved63%66% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast9°C · Partly cloudy
Wind8 km/h
Humidity80%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Nakashima B.Berrettini M.
7 — fresherDays since last match2
1 — fresherMatches · 7 days3
30 — fresherGames · 7 days47
4Matches · 14 days4
113Games · 14 days72 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Berrettini — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/berrettini-vs-nakashima-rolex-paris-masters-paris-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).