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Paula Badosa vs Harriet Dart — Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou Quarter-final

Guangzhou Open - GuangzhouQuarter-finalHardFri 30 Oct · 13:00Center Court · Next on
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Badosa P.
67%33%

Clear edge for Badosa P. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Badosa P.6.8/10
Slight advantage
Dart H.5.9/10
Even match
Why
Surface+167 Hard Elo edgeSupports Badosa P.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1780Supports Badosa P.
Recent run4-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Dart H.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Badosa P.
Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardBoth players
ELO1 945
Hard ELO1 839
Last 106–4
Age28
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $10.1M2026 $788K
ELO1 810
Hard ELO1 762
Last 108–2
Age30
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $3.8M2026 $570K

Paula Badosa faces Harriet Dart in the Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou quarter-final on hard. Paula Badosa is the paper favourite — ranked #61, a roughly 170-point hard Elo advantage — but Harriet Dart arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on hard to Paula Badosa's 6 of 10. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.

Key context

Common opponents

4 shared · last 12 months

Badosa P. and Dart H. faced 4 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Badosa P. went 2–2 (50%) against them, Dart H. 0–4 (0%). Badosa P. came out better against 2 of 4 comparable opponents, Dart H. against 0.

2–250%Badosa P. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents0–40%Dart H. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
4–5Sets2–8
44–46Games32–53
0–2Tiebreaks0–0
1–0Deciding sets0–2

Only 4 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

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Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1
11

Evidence

Badosa P.Dart H.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–48–2 (ahead)
Season win rate59% (29–20)63% (39–23) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1945 (ahead)1810
Hard-court ELO1839 (ahead)1762
Serve vs returnLast 49 vs 56 matches
1st-serve points won68% (ahead)65%
Return points won45%48% (ahead)
Aces / match4.2 (ahead)1.9
ClutchLast 49 vs 56 matches
Break points saved56% (ahead)51%

When it starts

Center Court · Next on · Starting at 1:00 PM

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Center Court · 13:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast32°C · Mainly clear
Wind5 km/h
Humidity42%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Badosa P.Dart H.
1Days since last match1
2 — fresherMatches · 7 days4
34 — fresherGames · 7 days101
3 — fresherMatches · 14 days7
62 — fresherGames · 14 days173
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Paula Badosa vs Harriet Dart — Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-30/badosa-vs-dart-guangzhou-open-guangzhou-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 30 October 2026).