Harriet Dart vs Maria Sakkari — Athens Round of 16
Dart H.
Harriet Dart faces Maria Sakkari in the Athens round of 16 on hard. Maria Sakkari holds the paper edge — ranked #37, a roughly 220-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 00:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Sakkari M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Harriet Dart 28 games in 14 days, Maria Sakkari 61.
- Under pressure: Maria Sakkari has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 81 vs Harriet Dart's 54).
- Last match: Maria Sakkari handed Polina Kudermetova a first-set bagel in a 6–0 7–6 win.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on hard
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadDart H.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Sakkari M.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.