Harriet Dart vs Marie Bouzkova — US Open Round of 64
Dart H.
Harriet Dart faces Marie Bouzkova in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Marie Bouzkova is the paper favourite — ranked #26, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 220-point hard Elo advantage — but Harriet Dart has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard. Harriet Dart brings the better recent hard form (6 of 8).
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Bouzkova M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Harriet Dart 104 games in 14 days, Marie Bouzkova 59.
- Last match: Harriet Dart dropped the opening set before beating Peyton Stearns 3–6 6–3 6–2.
- Last match: Marie Bouzkova dropped just 4 games past Elsa Jacquemot.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 39). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadDart H.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d) · Bouzkova M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-24 | Eastbourne | R32 | grass | Harriet Dart | 7-5 6-7 6-4 |