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Xinran Sun vs Claire Liu — Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou Quarter-final

Guangzhou Open - GuangzhouQuarter-finalHardFri 30 Oct · 15:30Center Court · After 2 matches
Xinran SunCHN14%
VSStrong favourite · Liu C.
Claire LiuWTA #109 · USA86%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Liu C.
14%86%

Clear edge for Liu C. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 7 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Sun X.4.8/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Liu C.5.2/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form6 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Sun X.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysBoth players
ELO1 578
Hard ELO1 561
Last 108–2
Age56
PlaysRight
ELO1 841
Hard ELO1 686
Last 106–4
Age26
PlaysRight

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Sun X.Liu C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate74% (14–5) (ahead)67% (42–21)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15781841 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15611686 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 12 vs 60 matches
1st-serve points won57%62% (ahead)
Return points won50% (ahead)47%
Aces / match0.92.9 (ahead)
ClutchLast 12 vs 60 matches
Break points saved48%55% (ahead)

When it starts

Center Court · After 2 matches · Not before 3:30 PM

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Center Court · 15:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast32°C · Mainly clear
Wind9 km/h
Humidity40%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Sun X.Liu C.
2Days since last match2
1Matches · 7 days1
19 — fresherGames · 7 days33
1 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
19 — fresherGames · 14 days85
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Xinran Sun vs Claire Liu — Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-30/liu-vs-sun-guangzhou-open-guangzhou-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 30 October 2026).