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Lilli Tagger vs Han Shi — Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou Quarter-final

Guangzhou Open - GuangzhouQuarter-finalHardFri 30 Oct · 19:00Center Court · After 3 matches
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Tagger L.
59%41%

Tagger L. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Tagger L.6.5/10
Marginal edge
Shi H.5.1/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+416 Hard Elo edgeSupports Tagger L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1684Supports Tagger L.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Shi H.
Recent run2-match win streakBoth players
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 797
Hard ELO1 707
Last 105–5
Age18
EarningsCareer $857K2026 $784K
ELO1 768
Hard ELO1 725
Last 107–3
Age21
EarningsCareer $264K2026 $75K

Lilli Tagger faces Han Shi in the Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou quarter-final on hard. Lilli Tagger is the paper favourite — ranked #53, a roughly 420-point hard Elo advantage — but Han Shi arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on hard to Lilli Tagger's 5 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Tagger L. and Shi H. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Tagger L. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Shi H. 1–0 (100%).

0–10%Tagger L. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–0100%Shi H. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
0–2Sets2–0
6–12Games13–6
0–0Tiebreaks1–0

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Tagger L.Shi H.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–57–3 (ahead)
Season win rate61% (34–22)68% (54–26) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1797 (ahead)1768
Hard-court ELO17071725 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 54 vs 76 matches
1st-serve points won68% (ahead)63%
Return points won43%48% (ahead)
Aces / match4.4 (ahead)2.2
ClutchLast 54 vs 76 matches
Break points saved54%55% (ahead)

When it starts

Center Court · After 3 matches · Not before 7:00 PM

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Center Court · 19:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast30°C · Mainly clear
Wind8 km/h
Humidity46%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Tagger L.Shi H.
2 — fresherDays since last match1
2Matches · 7 days2
48Games · 7 days42 — fresher
4 — fresherMatches · 14 days5
87 — fresherGames · 14 days89
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Lilli Tagger vs Han Shi — Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-30/shi-vs-tagger-guangzhou-open-guangzhou-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 30 October 2026).