Paula Badosa vs Marie BouzkovaBrisbane Round of 32

Brisbane · WTA · Round of 32
#141WTA
1780ELO
1748Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#23WTA
1871ELO
1798Hard ELO
$844kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Badosa P.
6-7 6-4 6-2
Bouzkova M.
Badosa P.
64662
Bouzkova M.
77421

Paula Badosa defeated Marie Bouzkova 6-7 6-4 6-2 in the Brisbane round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Marie Bouzkova came in ranked #23. Paula Badosa extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-12AdelaideR32hardMarie Bouzkova3-6 6-3 6-4
2025-05-18StrasbourgR16clayPaula Badosa3-3 RET
2024-07-29WashingtonFhardPaula Badosa6-1 4-6 6-4
2022-03-21MiamiR64hardPaula Badosa7-5 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Badosa P.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Bouzkova M.

Bouzkova M.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Badosa P.Bouzkova M.
21
Serve
10
19
Return
81

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
38%
43%
Service points won·Even
55%
56%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
52%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.6
1.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
7.3
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
93
79
Break points saved·Slight edge
95
90
Break points won·Even
94
98
Deciding sets·Clear edge
95
75
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
94
71

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 102 days (−1.5)
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 76 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
4.6Hard Elo 1748
Surface ELO
5.4+51 Hard Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1780
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1871
10.0
H2H
0.0
5.0
Surface form
5.3
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.4
Country comfort
4.1
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
64
78

Badosa P.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 74 games (7d) · Bouzkova M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw