Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa

UMPIRY

Ningbo Open - NingboQuarter-finalHardFri 23 Oct · 19:00Center Court · After 3 matches

Elena Rybakina(1)WTA #1 · KAZ93%

VSStrong favourite · Rybakina E.

Katarzyna KawaWTA #128 · POL7%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Rybakina E.

93%7%

Clear edge for Rybakina E. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 14 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Rybakina E.7.0/10

Strong advantage

Kawa K.3.7/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+621 Hard Elo edgeSupports Rybakina E.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 2122Supports Rybakina E.

Recent run4-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Kawa K.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Rybakina E.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO2 261

Hard ELO2 173

Last 108–2

Age27

Height184 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $35.4M2026 $10.9M

ELO1 752

Hard ELO1 555

Last 106–4

Age33

Height178 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.5M2026 $217K

Elena Rybakina faces Katarzyna Kawa in the Ningbo Open - Ningbo quarter-final on hard. Elena Rybakina is the paper favourite — ranked #1, a roughly 620-point hard Elo advantage — but Katarzyna Kawa rides a 4-match win streak.

Key context

Freshness: Elena Rybakina comes in with 19 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Katarzyna Kawa's 2 and 48.
Serve & return: Elena Rybakina brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 100), Katarzyna Kawa the stronger return game (Return Rating 81).
Last match: Elena Rybakina advanced when Polina Kudermetova retired.

Common opponents

4 shared · last 12 months

Rybakina E. and Kawa K. faced 4 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Rybakina E. went 4–1 (80%) against them, Kawa K. 2–2 (50%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 0 better-results split).

4–180%Rybakina E. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents2–250%Kawa K. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

9–2Sets4–4

64–37Games36–35

0–1Deciding sets0–0

Only 4 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Svitolina E.#6L6-2 4-6 4-6Rome · clayL2-6 1-6BJK Cup Qualifiers · hard
vs Maria T.#69W7-5 6-0London · grassW6-3 6-3Bogota · clay
vs Erjavec V.#149W6-2 6-2Roland Garros · clayW6-0 6-4Huzhou 125 · clay

Show 1 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Badosa P.#61Hard to compareW6-3 6-2Brisbane · hardL5-7 4-6Hamburg · clay

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Rybakina E.Kawa K.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–26–4

Season win rate78% (50–14)57% (29–22)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO22611752

Hard-court ELO21731555

Serve vs returnLast 63 vs 50 matches

1st-serve points won74%61%

Return points won42%48%

Aces / match6.61.8

ClutchLast 63 vs 50 matches

Break points saved63%53%

When it starts

Center Court · After 3 matches · Not before 7:00 PM

1Bejlek S. v Bouzkova M.Not before 1:00 PM
2Fernandez L. v Alexandrova E.Followed by
3Jovic I. v Shnaider D.Not before 4:00 PM
4This match: Rybakina E. v Kawa K.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Center Court · 19:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast21°C · Showers

Wind15 km/h

Humidity94%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Rybakina E.Kawa K.

19Days since last match2

0Matches · 7 days3

0Games · 7 days48

0Matches · 14 days3

0Games · 14 days48

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-23/kawa-vs-rybakina-ningbo-open-ningbo-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 23 October 2026).