Katarzyna Kawa vs Paula Badosa — Hamburg Round of 32

Hamburg · WTA · Round of 32

POL

Katarzyna Kawa

#131WTA

1664ELO

1662Clay ELO

33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLLWWWWWW

—

Sets

Wednesday, 22 July 2026 · 10:00

clay

ESP

Paula Badosa

#93WTA

1780ELO

1684Clay ELO

28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWWWWWWWW

Kawa K.

Badosa P.

Katarzyna Kawa faces Paula Badosa in the Hamburg round of 32 on clay. Paula Badosa holds the paper edge — ranked #93, a roughly 20-point clay Elo advantage.

Around the match

Badosa retired during the final in Iasi after losing the first set 6-4 and falling 4-0 down in the second, ending her nine-match winning streak.
Badosa P.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC

Kawa K.34%

Badosa P.66%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Badosa P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Katarzyna Kawa 44 games in 14 days, Paula Badosa 198.
Under pressure: Paula Badosa has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 87 vs Katarzyna Kawa's 51).
Surface form: Katarzyna Kawa 5 of 7, Paula Badosa 6 of 7 on clay recently — Paula Badosa the sharper of late.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Kawa K.

6.1

Even matchUmpiry Score

Badosa P.

7.0

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

4.7Clay Elo 1662

Surface ELO

5.3+22 Clay Elo edge

3.6Overall Elo 1664

ELO gap

6.4Overall Elo 1780

5.0First meeting on clay

H2H

5.0First meeting on clay

6.06 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

8.59 of last 10 on clay

0.0

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

24 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season

Kawa K.Badosa P.

1st serve in·Slight edge

62%

56%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

61%

69%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

46%

39%

Service points won·Even

55%

56%

Return points won·Even

47%

43%

Break points saved·Even

54%

53%

Aces / match·Dominant

1.2

4.8

Double faults / match·Dominant

2.8

7.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Kawa K.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Badosa P.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Kawa K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Kawa K.Badosa P.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Even

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Kawa K.Badosa P.

Freshness·Dominant

Kawa K.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Badosa P.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 117 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-slowfavours grinders

SlowFast

Weather forecast

16°CRain

Wind 16 km/hHumidity 81%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Katarzyna Kawa vs Paula Badosa — Hamburg Round of 32

Around the match

Win Probability

Key context

Umpiry Score

Statistics

Serve vs return

Clutch

Freshness

Conditions

Head to head

Draw