Elena Rybakina vs Paula BadosaBrisbane Round of 16

Brisbane · WTA · Round of 16
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#141WTA
1780ELO
1748Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLLWWL
Rybakina E.
6-3 6-2
Badosa P.
Rybakina E.
662
Badosa P.
320

Elena Rybakina defeated Paula Badosa 6-3 6-2 in the Brisbane round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 4–3. Elena Rybakina extended the head-to-head to 5–3.

Key context

Head to head

43
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-17DubaiR16hardElena Rybakina4-6 7-6(8) 7-6(2)
2023-03-20MiamiR32hardElena Rybakina3-6 7-5 6-3
2023-03-06Indian WellsR32hardElena Rybakina6-3 7-5
2022-11-09BJK Cup Finals RR: ESP vs KAZRRhardPaula Badosa6-2 3-6 6-4
2022-04-18StuttgartR16clayPaula Badosa6-2 4-6 7-6(4)
2021-08-16CincinnatiR16hardPaula Badosa6-2 7-6(5)
2019-07-15BucharestR32clayElena Rybakina7-5 7-6(4)

Serve vs return

This season
Rybakina E.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Badosa P.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Serve advantage — Rybakina E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rybakina E.Badosa P.
100
Serve
21
34
Return
19

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
70%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
52%
39%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
56%
Return points won·Even
41%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.0
4.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.5
7.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
92
93
Break points saved·Even
98
95
Break points won·Even
96
94
Deciding sets·Even
98
95
Tiebreaks·Even
93
94

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
2.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 102 days (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
10.0+362 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1748
10.0Overall Elo 2122
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1780
10.0
H2H
0.0
9.3
Surface form
5.0
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.7
Country comfort
5.4
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
89
64

Rybakina E.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Badosa P.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 74 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw