Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Machac | Shanghai Masters Round of 32

UMPIRY

Shanghai MastersR32HardFri 9 Oct · ~16:30Court 2 · After 3 matches

Alexander Bublik(19)ATP #22 · KAZ64%

VSSlight edge · Bublik A.

Tomas MachacATP #75 · CZE36%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Bublik A.

64%36%

Bublik A. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Bublik A.6.3/10

Marginal edge

Machac T.5.9/10

Even match

Why

Surface+7 Hard Elo edgeSupports Bublik A.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1889Supports Bublik A.

Recent runLost last 3Against the prediction · Machac T.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Bublik A.

This eventReached the R64 here last yearInformative

ELO2 058

Hard ELO1 885

Last 105–5

Age29

Height196 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $12.7M2026 $1.7M

ELO1 965

Hard ELO1 828

Last 103–7

Age25

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $6.8M2026 $862K

Alexander Bublik faces Tomas Machac in the Shanghai Masters round of 32 on hard. Alexander Bublik holds the paper edge — ranked #22, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 64. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Alexander Bublik 40 games in 14 days, Tomas Machac 100.
Serve & return: Alexander Bublik leads on Serve Rating (58), Tomas Machac on Return Rating (37).
Last match: Tomas Machac dropped the opening set before beating Zhizhen Zhang 1–6 7–6 6–2.

Common opponents

3 shared · last 12 months

Bublik A. and Machac T. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Bublik A. went 2–1 (67%) against them, Machac T. 1–2 (33%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 1 better-results split).

2–167%Bublik A. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents1–233%Machac T. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

4–2Sets4–5

32–26Games38–47

0–0Tiebreaks2–0

0–0Deciding sets0–1

Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Tsitsipas S.#43L2-6 5-7Madrid Masters · clayW6-4 3-6 7-6 7-6Australian Open · hard
vs Moutet C.#71W6-3 7-5Paris Masters · hardL0-6 6-1 4-6Miami Masters · hard
vs Molcan A.#84W6-3 6-2Kitzbuhel · clayL3-6 2-6Beijing · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Bublik A. leads 2–0

Grass: Bublik A. leads 1–0 · Hard: Bublik A. leads 1–0

Bublik A.June 2025HalleGrass7-6 6-3
Bublik A.February 2024DubaiHard2-6 6-3 7-6

Evidence

Bublik A.Machac T.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–53–7

Season win rate58% (28–20)52% (16–15)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20581965

Hard-court ELO18851828

Serve vs returnLast 39 vs 23 matches

1st-serve points won77%69%

Return points won33%36%

Aces / match11.75.0

ClutchLast 39 vs 23 matches

Break points saved66%60%

When it starts

Court 2 · After 3 matches · Followed by

1Mannarino A. v Cobolli F.Starts at 12:00
2Hanfmann Y. v Tiafoe F.Followed by
3De Minaur A. v Molcan A.Followed by
4This match: Bublik A. v Machac T.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Court 2 · ~16:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast22°C · Overcast

Wind6 km/h

Humidity69%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Bublik A.Machac T.

7Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days2

23Games · 7 days45

2Matches · 14 days4

40Games · 14 days100

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Machac — Shanghai Masters Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-09/bublik-vs-machac-shanghai-masters-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 9 October 2026).