Alexander Bublik vs Tomas MachacDubai Round of 32

Dubai · ATP · Round of 32
#11ATP
1889ELO
1837Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 26 February 2024
hard
#49ATP
1866ELO
1829Hard ELO
$832kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWW
Bublik A.
2-6 6-3 7-6
Machac T.
Bublik A.
26772
Machac T.
63651

Alexander Bublik defeated Tomas Machac 2-6 6-3 7-6 in the Dubai round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Alexander Bublik came in ranked #11, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 16. Alexander Bublik extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-16HalleQFgrassAlexander Bublik7-6(2) 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Bublik A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Machac T.

Machac T.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bublik A.Machac T.
65
Serve
30
25
Return
25

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
64%
Return points won·Even
35%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
11.1
5.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.2
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (140 vs 121). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
88
90
Break points saved·Even
99
98
Break points won·Clear edge
67
80
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
94
Tiebreaks·Even
96
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.4+7 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Hard Elo 1829
5.9Overall Elo 1889
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1866
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.7
Surface form
6.5
Fatigue & Travel
6.1
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
70

Bublik A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 27 km/hHumidity 67%