Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina — US Open Round of 32

US Open · WTA · Round of 32
Yuliia Starodubtseva
UKR
Yuliia Starodubtseva
#58WTA
1759ELO
1668Hard ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLLLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 5 September 2026 ·
hard
Grandstand · 3rd on
Elena Rybakina
KAZ2
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWLW
Starodubtseva Y.
6-7 3-6
Rybakina E.
Starodubtseva Y.
6630
Rybakina E.
7862

Elena Rybakina defeated Yuliia Starodubtseva in the Round of 32 at the US Open. The match ended with a score of 7-6, 6-3 in favor of Rybakina. This victory advanced Rybakina to the next round of the tournament.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-27Roland GarrosR64clayYuliia Starodubtseva3-6 6-1

Statistics

This season
Starodubtseva Y.Rybakina E.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
64%
Return points won·Even
46%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.1
6.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Starodubtseva Y.Rybakina E.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
75
99
Break points saved·Slight edge
89
96
Break points won·Even
95
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
66
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
76
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC
Starodubtseva Y.8%
Rybakina E.92%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Starodubtseva Y.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Rybakina E.
8.3
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1668
Surface ELO
10.0+442 Hard Elo edge
0.5Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
9.5Overall Elo 2122
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.98 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Starodubtseva Y.Rybakina E.
Freshness·Even
74
74

Starodubtseva Y.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
21°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw