Elina Svitolina vs Anna KalinskayaUS Open Round of 32

US Open · WTA · Round of 32
#9WTA
2070ELO
1997Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
31 yrs · 174 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLWWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 5 September 2026 ·
hard
#23WTA
1907ELO
1863Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLWLWW
Svitolina E.
3-6 6-2 3-6
Kalinskaya A.
Svitolina E.
3631
Kalinskaya A.
6262

Anna Kalinskaya defeated Elina Svitolina in the Round of 32 at the US Open, prevailing 6-3, 2-6, 6-3. The match saw Kalinskaya commit 9 double faults to Svitolina's 4, while both players converted 50% and 71% of their break points, respectively, and each won 5 service breaks. Kalinskaya did not hit an ace, while Svitolina had 2.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • Svitolina remains physically competitive despite the ankle injury that forced her out of Cincinnati.

    Umpiry summary — not a quote

  • I'm shocked. It's a very nice win for me. The match was very close. I feel until the last point it was very up and down.

    Kalinskaya A.tennismajors.com

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

  • Match story: Anna Kalinskaya closed it out in three sets, 6–3 2–6 6–3.

Head to head

41
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-16BerlinR32grassElina Svitolina6-1 4-1
2026-02-08DohaR16hardAnna Kalinskaya6-4 6-3
2025-07-27MontrealR32hardElina Svitolina6-1 6-1
2025-02-17DubaiR64hardElina Svitolina6-1 6-2
2024-05-06RomeR32clayElina Svitolina6-3 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
46%
Service points won·Even
60%
56%
Return points won·Even
46%
45%
Break points saved·Clear edge
63%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.4
2.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.9
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
90
75
Break points saved·Dominant
83
36
Break points won·Even
99
96
Deciding sets·Even
97
93
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
91
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Svitolina E.70%
Kalinskaya A.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Svitolina E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.7+135 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Hard Elo 1863
7.0Overall Elo 2070
ELO gap
3.0Overall Elo 1907
5.7Leads 2–1 on hard
H2H
4.3Trails 1–2 on hard
7.78 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
76
69

Svitolina E.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 57 games (7d) · Kalinskaya A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 73 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 65%

Draw